Building Resilience and Adapting to Extreme Temperatures.
In June 2024, the Bristol Advisory Committee on Climate Change (BACCC) held a workshop on heat resilience. In this blog, Jim Longhurst, Emeritus Professor at UWE Bristol and member of the BACCC, reflects on the workshop and learnings for the city.
Temperatures approaching 40 degrees Celsius, wildfires breaking out, increasing demand for hospital and GP services, road surfaces at risk of melting, the swing bridge opening mechanism struggling in the heat.
This isn’t a natural disaster in a faraway country but impacts experienced in Bristol due to the 2022 and 2023 heatwaves.
In June 2024 the Bristol Advisory Committee on Climate Change convened a workshop to discuss the challenge of increasing summer temperatures in the city and to explore the actions that can be taken to adapt and build resilience in the face of a changing climate. In BACCC’s review of progress with the One City Climate Strategy the need for enhanced action on adaptation was highlighted and this workshop aimed to explore what we know about the impact of heatwaves in Bristol, the gaps in knowledge that must be addressed and how we can prepare and adapt for future heatwaves.
The current approach to adaptation isn’t working
It is a question of when, not if, a future heatwave will affect the UK. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) confirmed that 2023 was the warmest year on record, with the global average near-surface temperature at 1.45 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline. It also was the warmest ten-year period on record. The Barcelona Institute for Global Health estimated that over 70,000 excess deaths occurred across Europe during the 2022 heatwave.
Against the backdrop of new temperature records and heatwaves the United Nations Environment Programme published their Adaptation Gap Report 2023. The report highlighted how ill prepared the world is for adapting to rising temperatures and other climate change impacts. There is inadequate investment and insufficient planning on climate adaptation leaving the world exposed to climate risks.
The high temperatures experienced in 2022 and 2023 have continued into 2024. In the early summer of 2024 the BBC reported that extreme heat was affecting countries around the world. In the USA more than 70 million people were subject to warnings about extreme temperatures whilst Northern India experienced a weeks-long heatwave, with temperatures of 44-45 degrees Celsius being recorded. Greece reported the earliest heatwave yet experienced in the country. In Saudi Arabia more than 1000 pilgrims attending the Hajj are thought to have died as temperatures reached 51 degrees Celsius.
In the UK Baroness Brown, Chair of the Climate Change Committee’s Adaptation Committee said “The evidence of the damage from climate change has never been clearer, but the UK’s current approach to adaptation is not working”. Brown also said “We cannot wait another five years for only incremental improvement” arguing that Government needs to overhaul its adaptation work and better integrate it with other Government priorities. This message of ill preparedness was also present in the Climate Change Committee’s (CCC) 2023 report to Parliament assessing England’s progress in adapting to climate change. The hard hitting report described the impacts from extreme weather in the UK in 2022 highlighting the urgency of adapting to climate change. However, the report went on to note that the second National Adaptation Programme has not adequately prepared the UK for climate change. The CCC’s assessment found “very limited evidence of the implementation of adaptation at the scale needed to fully prepare for climate risks facing the UK across cities, communities, infrastructure, economy and ecosystems”. The Government’s Third National Adaptation Programme has been published covering the period 2023 to 2028. Actions included in the programme include planning for more green spaces in urban areas to help keep them cool and building infrastructure that can withstand expected climate impacts such as extreme heat and flooding.
Over the next few decades heatwaves will become more frequent, with higher temperatures and are likely to last longer. Heatwave impacts will intensify unless measures are implemented to adapt to the future climate and to build resilience in communities, businesses, agriculture and infrastructure.
How prepared is Bristol for further heatwaves?
Within the context of national ill preparedness and global heat waves, BACCC wanted to better understand the actions underway to prepare Bristol for the heatwaves to come. In order to do this the workshop explored four areas of action.
- What actions are underway or planned at the regional scale by the West of England Combined Authority (WECA)?
- What actions are Bristol City Council taking at the city scale?
- What actions are being taken by the NHS to protect the population and ensure services continue to operate?
- What role can community groups play in communicating awareness and supporting the local population during heatwaves?
The West of England Combined Authority’s Climate and Ecological Strategy and Action Plan sets out the actions to be taken to tackle the biggest threats from a changing climate and foregrounds work with partners to accelerate action which protects residents and businesses. A critical part of current work is building the evidence base and assembling the necessary data and sources of further information. WECA will be reporting on adaptation actions in the pilot programme for local government as part of Adaptation Reporting Power (ARP4). BACCC has agreed to review the ARP report and contribute its expertise where needed.
Bristol City Council’s adaptation work focuses upon four key areas:
- Protecting vulnerable people, the public, council employees and council services during heatwaves
- Future-proofing growth and city regeneration
- Tackling overheating risk in people’s homes
- Using blue green infrastructure for cooling streets and public spaces
The Keep Bristol Cool mapping tool is an important element of Bristol’s work and shows how vulnerability varies across the city. The annual Quality of Life Survey has highlighted areas of the city reporting problems with overheating. In Central, Bishopston and Ashley Down, Southville, Cotham and Ashley wards over 40% of households already experience overheating issues. Bristol has identified the following impacts of prolonged high temperatures and heatwaves during the summer months:
- buildings overheating
- decreased worker productivity
- highways affected by high temperatures
- increased demand for green spaces, especially in dense, urban areas
- increased impacts on health and wellbeing of vulnerable people
- pressure on health and social care systems with spikes in calls to the NHS helpline
- hospital admissions
- deaths
The Integrated Care System (ICS) for Bristol, North Somerset and South Gloucestershire provided a health perspective on adaptation and heat resilience. In the 2022 heatwave the UK suffered over 3000 excess deaths from heat related issues. On 19 July when the temperature reached 40.3 degrees Celsius, 638 excess deaths occurred. In Bristol, North Somerset and South Gloucestershire it is estimated that some 50 people die each year in extreme heat conditions, under a medium-emission scenario, this figure would increase to roughly 95 people a year by 2050.
Heatwaves have a negative effect on mental health disorders, chronic health conditions, respiratory diseases, infections from bacteria, fungi and viruses, vector borne diseases, cardiovascular diseases and can lead to an increased risk of injury. The impacts of a heatwave can be very unequal with the impacts particularly affecting older people, those under five, people with pre-existing health conditions, people with mobility challenges, the socially isolated and tenants in private or social housing.
There are a range of adaptations to reduce the health risk including:
- Mediate the heat risk in care settings
- Health education around heat
- Communicate heat health action plans
- Heat wave and pollen count warning
- Providing cooling shelters
Bristol’s Community Groups are a vitally important source of local knowledge. Eastside Community Trust (ECT) described the actions they have taken as part of the Community Climate Action Project. As a trusted local organisation, service provider and networked across their community they have an unrivalled local knowledge and can help in identifying the most vulnerable in their area. It is important that messaging about heat risk is sensitive to the specific needs, challenges and cultures of an area and groups like Eastside Community Trust are well positioned to provide advice on how this should be undertaken. The area of Bristol served by ECT has a highly diverse population, with a large percentage of residents living in flats or rental properties. Overcrowding is a particular issue and there is limited access to green space. Together these issues can be problematic in times of high temperature.
The workshop had a wide ranging discussion about knowledge gaps, urgency and pace of implementing actions to prepare the city, expected impacts on health, the economy and nature, inequalities in the impact on people, likely impact on council and other public services, timescales for action and priority actions.
It is clear that heatwaves are not just a public health challenge for health and wellbeing. They have a fundamental impact across society locally and globally, affecting wildlife, food security, provision of public services, infrastructure functionality, the wider economy and many other issues. There is an urgent need to build resilience and to adapt to a changing climate. The clock is ticking.
Next steps
BACCC will continue to work closely with the One City Environment Board and the other city wide Boards to ensure recommendations for actions around resilience and adaptation are incorporated into citywide planning.
BACCC would like to thank Lucy Vilarkin, Ben Smallwood, Sam Willitts and Vic Wakefield-Jarrett for their insightful contributions to the workshop.
There are many ways to contribute to Bristol’s climate action and plenty of support available. Find out more about how you can play your part whether as an individual, as part of a business, or through your community on Bristol’s Climate Hub website.
If you are working on adaptation and resilience and would like to connect with BACCC, please get in touch via contact@bristolclimatenature.org.
BACCC is supported by the Bristol Climate & Nature Partnership you can join the Partnership here.
Bristol Advisory Committee on Climate Change 